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Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World
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Momentum
Cycles
Neophytes quickly fall under the spell of fast moving
markets. However, trading momentum is far more difficult
than most participants admit. When the emotional crowd
ignites sharp price movement, greed clouds risk
awareness. The inexperienced trader reacts foolishly and
chases positions just behind the big volume, where odds
of a reversal quickly increase.
Prices rarely move in a straight line. As shocks
destabilize a market, counter force emerges to restrain
price back toward its stable state. An inevitable
backward reaction follows each forward impulse. Burning
the fuel of the crowd's money, markets seek equilibrium
before proceeding with the next price thrust.
Unskilled traders fail to consider this cycle when
entering momentum trades. They blindly execute positions
with a common and dangerous strategy: market entries on
accelerating thrusts. Lacking trailing stops and
effective risk management, both good and bad positions
bleed money as sharp countertrends destroy profits. As
these inevitable reactions wind down, losses escalate as
blind fear chooses the exact turning point to finally
get out.
Consider both action and reaction when developing
effective momentum trades. This demands complex planning
and detached execution. One successful strategy requires
trading opposite to natural bias: entries on counter
trend reactions and exits on accelerating thrusts. This
aligns positions to the underlying trend but against the
current crowd emotion. Entries into accelerating
momentum can also work when tight stops are placed and
the trader exits into further acceleration. This
eliminates risk associated with the inevitable pullback.
Choosing the wrong action-reaction trigger produces
frustrating results. Every trader knows the pain of
executing a low risk entry, riding a profitable trend,
then losing everything on a subsequent reaction. Avoid
this experience using clearly defined tactics to
minimize emotional momentum trading. Supplement this
discipline with multi-trend technical analysis and
cross-verification to identify profitable swing-points
and locate natural escape routes.
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| Riding the Wave:
Markets inhale and exhale as dynamic trends
evolve. Reaction follows impulse as momentum
seeks stability in preparation for new price
change. Smart traders read this continuous cycle
through the wave motion in bar charts. |
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